Prabowo Subianto Diplomacy: Personalistic, Non-Aligned, and Challenges on the Global Stage

October 21, 2024
Political Dynamics
9 min read
Authors: ,

AP Photo/Achmad Ibrahim

In 20 october,2024, Prabowo Subianto will officially become the 8th President of Indonesia, replacing Joko Widodo. Prabowo’s election marks a new era in Indonesia’s foreign policy, where the president’s personal involvement becomes more intensive and targeted. Prabowo, known for his military background and extensive international relations, is expected to bring a different approach to Indonesian diplomacy, focusing more on bilateral engagement and direct conflict resolution. there are several approach that Prabowo would bring refers to the official release and Prabowo presidential campaign.

Transition from Jokowi: Continuities and Shifts

Under President Joko Widodo, Indonesia enjoyed significant milestones in its diplomatic efforts, notably hosting the G20 and ASEAN summits. These achievements positioned Indonesia as a key player in regional and international economic and political forums. However, Jokowi’s administration was heavily domestic-focused, with economic development and infrastructure at the core of his policies. Foreign policy was largely delegated to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, particularly Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, who often represented Indonesia on the global stage. This more passive stance on diplomacy allowed Indonesia to consolidate its domestic goals while maintaining strategic ties with regional and global partners.

In contrast, Prabowo has signaled his intent to reinvigorate Indonesia’s diplomatic role, moving away from Jokowi’s multilateralism toward a more bilateral approach. Unlike Jokowi, who often refrained from direct involvement in international affairs, Prabowo’s leadership will likely see a stronger presidential hand in foreign policy decisions. His military background, coupled with his extensive relationships with foreign leaders, positions him to take a more assertive role in shaping Indonesia’s international strategy. Prabowo has expressed a desire to directly engage with world leaders on key global issues, thereby marking a departure from Jokowi’s more institutionalized approach.

The shift in focus from multilateralism to bilateralism raises questions about the continuity of Indonesia’s foreign policy trajectory. While some of Jokowi’s achievements, such as his focus on maritime development and regional security, may continue under Prabowo, the new president’s emphasis on personal diplomacy could alter Indonesia’s long-standing approach to international relations. The extent to which Prabowo balances domestic and international interests remains to be seen, particularly in the face of pressing global challenges.

Instagram/@prabowo

Personalistic Approach to Diplomacy

Prabowo’s personalistic approach to diplomacy has its roots in his campaign, during which he emphasized the importance of leader-to-leader engagement. His meetings with key global powers, including China, Japan, and Russia, demonstrate his preference for direct diplomacy over institutional frameworks like ASEAN. While this approach allows for faster decision-making and a more personal touch, it could potentially weaken the role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other diplomatic institutions that traditionally handle these matters. A personalized foreign policy can lead to inconsistencies, particularly when the president’s personal relations with foreign leaders override institutional policies.

A clear example of this approach was Prabowo’s visit to China in 2023, where he negotiated key agreements on defense and infrastructure without significant input from ASEAN channels. By focusing on bilateral engagements, Prabowo aims to elevate Indonesia’s position globally, but this comes with risks. Should these relationships falter, Indonesia could find itself without the safety net of multilateral support systems, particularly ASEAN, which has been the cornerstone of Indonesian foreign policy since its inception.

Non-Aligned and Great Power Relations

Indonesia’s foreign policy has long been guided by its “free and active” or non-aligned principle, which dates back to the Sukarno era. This policy has allowed Indonesia to navigate the Cold War, maintain sovereignty during periods of global tension, and act as a neutral party in various international conflicts. Prabowo’s administration will continue to uphold this principle but with notable shifts. In an era of intensifying US-China rivalry, Prabowo is expected to engage more actively with both powers while striving to protect Indonesia’s national interests. His administration’s challenge will be to maintain a balanced approach without appearing to lean too heavily toward either side.

Economically, Indonesia’s ties with China have deepened significantly over the past decade, particularly in infrastructure investment. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has played a pivotal role in financing Indonesia’s ambitious infrastructure projects, a relationship that Prabowo is expected to maintain. However, Prabowo will need to tread carefully, ensuring that Indonesia does not become overly dependent on Chinese investments, particularly as regional tensions in the South China Sea continue to escalate. His administration will likely seek to diversify foreign investments to include partners such as Japan and South Korea, both of which have expressed interest in strengthening ties with Indonesia.

In the realm of defense, Prabowo’s non-aligned stance will be tested by his close ties with the United States military. As Indonesia’s defense minister, Prabowo has fostered strong relations with US defense officials and has played a crucial role in modernizing Indonesia’s military capabilities. Maintaining these defense ties while deepening economic relations with China will be a delicate balancing act, as Indonesia navigates an increasingly polarized world. Prabowo’s ability to uphold Indonesia’s strategic autonomy will be key in preserving its non-aligned policy amid growing global pressure.

Challenges on the International Stage: Gaza and Ukraine

Prabowo’s assertive stance on international conflicts reflects his willingness to take bold positions on sensitive global issues. His participation in humanitarian efforts in Gaza and vocal criticism of Western policies toward Palestine and Ukraine signal a more outspoken Indonesian role on the world stage. During a high-level humanitarian conference in Gaza in 2024, Prabowo pledged Indonesia’s continued support for Palestinian refugees, emphasizing the need for international protection. His remarks were met with approval domestically, where support for the Palestinian cause remains strong, but they also highlight Indonesia’s broader engagement with the Middle East, a region that remains volatile and deeply divided.

However, Prabowo’s criticisms of Western double standards in international conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, may present challenges in Indonesia’s relationships with Western allies. Prabowo’s stance on Ukraine has been cautious, advocating for peace while critiquing NATO’s role in the escalation of the conflict. His administration will need to navigate these complex dynamics carefully, particularly as Indonesia seeks to maintain economic and defense ties with Western nations. Prabowo’s approach to these conflicts reflects his broader foreign policy philosophy of balancing great power relations while advocating for peace and neutrality.

Prabowo’s engagement with these conflicts also poses a question of Indonesia’s capacity to act as a mediator in global disputes. While Indonesia’s non-aligned stance provides a foundation for peace-building efforts, Prabowo’s ability to influence major powers such as Russia and the United States will be a significant test of his diplomatic prowess. Indonesia’s growing role as a middle power could allow it to act as a neutral broker, but this will depend on Prabowo’s ability to build trust with all parties involved.

Bilateral Relations: Strategic Steps

Prabowo’s preference for bilateral diplomacy has been evident since his election, with key strategic meetings taking place with China, Japan, Russia, and Australia. These meetings reflect Prabowo’s focus on strengthening regional partnerships and securing Indonesia’s position in the Asia-Pacific. His administration’s priority is to modernize Indonesia’s defense sector, and bilateral agreements with countries like Australia highlight the importance of regional security cooperation. Prabowo’s defense deal with Australia, for instance, includes provisions for joint military exercises and intelligence sharing, aimed at enhancing Indonesia’s defense capabilities in the face of rising regional tensions.

AFP/Bay Ismoyo

Japan remains a crucial partner for Indonesia, particularly in trade and infrastructure development. Prabowo’s administration is expected to continue Jokowi’s efforts to deepen economic ties with Japan, particularly in energy and technology sectors. Additionally, Japan’s strategic partnership with Indonesia in maritime security will likely be a key focus of Prabowo’s foreign policy, as both countries seek to counter China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. Strengthening this bilateral relationship will be vital for Indonesia as it navigates the complex dynamics of regional security.

Russia’s relationship with Indonesia, particularly in defense and energy, will also play a significant role in Prabowo’s foreign policy. Despite Western sanctions on Russia, Prabowo’s administration is expected to continue engaging with Moscow on defense procurement and energy cooperation. However, this could create tension with Western allies, particularly as Indonesia seeks to maintain its non-aligned stance. Prabowo’s ability to balance these competing interests will be critical in determining Indonesia’s role in the evolving global order.

Policy Implications: Impact on Indonesia and the World 

Prabowo’s personalized diplomacy presents both opportunities and challenges for Indonesia’s foreign policy. On one hand, his direct engagement with global leaders can fast-track negotiations and elevate Indonesia’s status as a proactive middle power. His hands-on approach could lead to swift resolutions on key international issues, such as security and investment, that require immediate attention. This active participation is likely to make Indonesia more visible and influential in regional and global forums, especially in navigating complex relationships with both great powers and regional partners. However, this approach also risks creating inconsistencies between the President’s direct diplomacy and the policies traditionally handled by Indonesia’s diplomatic institutions.

One significant challenge lies in ensuring that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other state institutions remain empowered to carry out Indonesia’s broader diplomatic objectives. Prabowo’s tendency to bypass institutional diplomacy in favor of personal engagement might create friction within the government and lead to misalignment between presidential initiatives and institutional priorities. Diplomatic processes could become slower or more fragmented if key decisions are too centralized within the presidency. This centralization may lead to delays in implementation, especially in multilateral settings where coordination with multiple agencies and stakeholders is critical. Additionally, overly personalized diplomacy could weaken Indonesia’s established diplomatic machinery, which has long been effective in balancing domestic needs with international obligations.

Moreover, balancing Prabowo’s foreign policy ambitions with domestic priorities will be crucial. Indonesia’s economy, still recovering from the effects of the pandemic, requires careful management to ensure that foreign engagements directly benefit national development. Prabowo’s focus on international diplomacy must not overshadow pressing domestic issues such as unemployment, income inequality, and infrastructure needs. His administration will need to ensure that foreign policy serves Indonesia’s national interest, particularly in areas like trade, investment, and security, while managing domestic expectations. Successfully aligning international engagement with internal economic growth will be critical for Prabowo’s administration to avoid criticism that foreign affairs are taking precedence over national concerns. Thus, a careful balance between Prabowo’s international engagements and Indonesia’s internal development will be key to his success as both a domestic and international leader.

Reference

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