Iran’s Retaliation and the Presence of the U.S. in the Middle East: The Risk of Regional War
Introduce
The Middle East is heating up again after the assassination of Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, on Wednesday, July 31 in Tehran. Haniyeh was in Tehran as Iran’s ‘dear guest’ at the inauguration of Iran’s new president. While in Beirut, Israel launched an airstrike killing Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, which came hours before the assassination of Haniyeh.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, directly accused Israel of the attack, so that Iran and Hamas stated that they would make Israel regret the attack. “We consider it our duty to avenge his blood in this bitter and difficult incident that happened in the territory of the Islamic Republic,” Khamenei said.
This puts the Middle East region at risk of regional war again, exacerbated by the presence of the United States military in the Middle East as an effort to help Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its allies.United States Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin said on Friday, August 2, that he ordered more ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the Middle East and Europe. An additional fighter jet squadron will also be sent to the Middle East, and he added that the U.S. is also taking steps ‘to increase’ their readiness to deploy additional land-based ballistic missile defense.
Iran’s Retaliation to Israel
The assassination of Haniyeh in Iran appears to have reignited tensions in the region. The killing of Haniyeh on July 31 in Tehran, has been perceived as an attack that tarnishes Iran’s reputation due to its failure to ensure Haniyeh’s safety while he was attending the presidential inauguration as a guest.
Although there has been no official statement from the IDF, Iran has immediately accused Israel of orchestrating the attack. On the other side, Hezbollah has also felt the impact of the Israeli attack on southern Beirut on 31 July.
The statement from Iran’s Supreme Leader regarding retaliation for the attack has led Israel and the US to bolster their defenses. While details of Haniyeh’s assassination remain unclear, Iran’s vow to avenge his death seems to be taken seriously, evidenced by a meeting between Iran and its allies held on August 6.
Although there has been no public statement about the nature of Iran’s retaliation, analysts believe that Iran and its allies’ measures to avenge Haniyeh’s death will be highly structured to maintain regional stability and avoid escalating the conflict.
US sending ships and fighter jets to Middle East for Israel braces for Iran’s attack
On July 31, 2024, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken has argued that the United States was not involved in the killing of Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh in his interview with Channel News Asia.
Blinken’s statement was followed by a statement from US President, Joe Biden, which said that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh was not helpful for reaching a ceasefire in the conflict in Gaza. Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination will increase the risk of conflict escalation in the middle east region due to the potential for retaliatory attacks against israel.
Meanwhile, on July 30, the IDF launched a rocket attack on Beirut, Lebanon. The attack was in retaliation for rocket attacks allegedly carried out by Lebanese armed groups on the Golan Heights.
Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant claimed that the IDF’s retaliatory strike killed Hezbollah leader, Fuad Shukr. In response to the attack by the Israeli military, on July 6, Hassan Nasrallah said that he would take “strong” and “effective” retaliation and stated that the assassination could not be treated as an ordinary attack.
Hezbollah has fired a number of drones at Israel, injuring two people in the city of Mazra’a. However, a member of the group said that the attack was not a response to the death of Fuad Shukr.
As a result of the attack, there were concerns from the United States about further retaliation against Israel. President Joe Biden met with his senior security team about preparations to support Israel’s security on Monday, August 5, 2024. The US government has also instructed its citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible.
Prior to this, The US has also deployed a carrier strike group, a fighter squadron and additional warships to the Middle East region as it prepares to face retaliation from Iran over the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. Israel itself says it is ready for “range of scenarios” following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.
According to France 24, the US Defense Department is moving a squadron of fighter jets to the Middle East and maintaining an aircraft carrier in the region. US Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin ordered additional cruisers and destroyers capable of ballistic missile defense to Europe and the Middle East region and took steps to send more land-based ballistic missile defense weapons there.
One of the warships sent by the US to the Middle East is the USS Abraham Lincoln, which was formerly in the Asia-Pacific region. The deployment was announced by the Pentagon on August 3, 2024 amid a broader overhaul of the US military’s force posture in the Middle East.
The deployment of US military instruments to the Middle East region is a deterrence sought by the US government to prevent further escalation in the region due to attacks from Iran, Hezbollah, and their proxies. The move also confirms the US’ consistent commitment to Israel since the country’s establishment in 1948. If the USS Abraham Lincoln had arrived in the Middle East, it would have been the fourth group strike since October 7.
The risk of regional war
The United States has made major efforts in the Middle East to prevent a greater escalation of conflict in the region. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken immediately invited G7 countries to express their concern over recent events that could lead to a larger regional conflict, starting with Lebanon. However, the Pentagon said that Austin reiterated that the United States will continue to support Israel’s security in the face of retaliation threats from Iran and its proxies.
On August 6, Hezbollah launched drone strikes at two military sites near Acre in northern Israel and attacked Israel military vehicles at other locations. This attack is certainly part of Hezbollah’s retaliation against Israel for the attack on its leader. This shows the seriousness of the retaliatory attack that Iran and its allies will carry out against Israel. Hezbollah has traded near-daily cross-border fire with Israeli troops throughout the Gaza war.
The Israeli military later said its jets had destroyed a launcher that had been used by Hezbollah to send drones towards the Golan Heights on 7 August. Israel also vows to eliminate new Hamas leader chief Yahya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the October 7 attack, with regional hostilities threatening to boil over as the Gaza war enters its 11th month.
Blinken stated that the US has communicated to Iran and Israel that conflict in the Middle East must not escalate. The US is also actively engaged in diplomacy with its allies in the region to reach a consensus so as not to escalate conflicts in the region.
On August 12, the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy issued a Joint Statement on Conditions in the Middle East, in which they expressed their full support for ongoing efforts to de-escalate tensions and reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza. They also expressed their support for the defense of Israel against Iranian aggression and attack by Iran and the proxies.
Unfortunately, Iran has rejected calls to refrain from retaliatory attacks against Israel. The Foreign Ministry of Iran Nasser Kanaani gave a comment for a joint statement urging Iran and the proxies to stand down amid mounting fears that a direct attack could be imminent. He dismissed the warning as ‘shameless’, and questioned why the three countries did not issue any condemnation of Israel’s actions in the region.
In contrast to the US’s effort to de-escalate, the US has also approved the sale of military equipment–fighter jets, missile defense system, and other hardware–to Israel worth more than $20 billion. It makes Washington has faced mounting domestic and international criticism for its military support for Israel. It also makes Washington lose trust for countries involved in conflicts in the Middle East to play a role in resolving conflict.
If the U.S. and its allies want to try to suppress the escalation of the conflict from escalating, the U.S. and its allies should begin to show a form of neutrality toward conditions in the Middle East. The double-standard of the US and the West only keeps Iran and its allies confident in retaliation against Israel rather than trying to suppress the escalation of the conflict.