Poland’s Defense Overhaul: A Calculated Move Against Russian Threat

Author: Teuku Muhammad N. Fadilah

Background

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has posed a serious threat to Poland. This is based on the perception that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could spread to Poland. The geographical proximity between Poland and Ukraine, as well as Poland’s political stance on supporting Ukraine and routinely providing arms assistance, increases the likelihood of the country becoming Russia’s next target. So to anticipate this possibility, Poland needs to strengthen its military capabilities.

In order to strengthen its military, Poland passed a law to increase their defense budget by 3% of GDP, which is considered very large from the general ratio of defense budgets which range from 0.5-2% of GDP. The law allows Poland to spend on modernisation of its defense equipment in order to deal with the current threat of a potential invasion from Russia.

Creation of Poland New Defense Law

In order to strengthen its military, Poland actually has an initial plan, which was included in the National Security Strategy in 2014. Poland would gradually increase its defense budget from 1.5% of GDP in 2014 to 3% by 2030.[1] However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led the country to make sudden changes in its military budget. Poland’s President Andrzej Duda signed a new law to increase Poland’s defense budget to 3% of GDP with a nominal value of more than 25 billion USD as described in the following statistics.[2] The Polish government also committed to increasing its defense budget to 4% by 2024.[3]

With the signing of the agreement, Poland officially became the country with the largest defense budget ratio in NATO. This additional budget is an urgent need for Poland, because the country does not yet have adequate defense equipment in the event of a scenario where Russia invades Poland. In addition, Poland’s current defense equipment is still dominated by ex-Soviet Union weaponry. So that these weapons will not be suitable if used as a means of self-defense and deterrence in the face of Russia, because Russia also has equipment with similar technology and knows the advantages and disadvantages of these equipment.

Starting from this narrative, we can assume that Poland will rationally use its latest budget to modernize and increase its defense equipment. This behavior can be translated using the concept of security dilemma where it is explained that a country will make efforts to protect and protect itself if there is a threat to itself. In this context, Russia can be described as an existential threat to Poland, so Poland responds by increasing its military budget and using it to modernize and add to its defense equipment as a form of self-protection from Russian threats.

Poland’s equipment purchase process in order to strengthen and modernize its military

The increase in Poland’s defense budget allowed the military to purchase new equipment, and as of December 2022 Poland had spent more than 16.5 billion of its budget on new equipment. This figure is the highest compared to purchases in previous years, as the focus of the budget in 2022 was the purchase and modernisation of defense equipment as explained in the previous discussion. Below are the statistics of Poland’s defense spending from year to year in comparison to the previous year’s spending.

The expenditure was mostly used in strengthening the land and air defense equipment, where the expenditure was earmarked for the purchase of battle tanks, howitzers, anti-air defense systems, combat aircraft and helicopters with the following purchase amounts.

If we look at the table above, we can see that Poland’s purchase of defense equipment is dominated by equipment from the United States and South Korea. In order to provide a deterrent effect to Russia, it is necessary to use western defense equipment, and this is evidenced by these purchases. Poland’s spending of defense equipment is not all carried out using financing from their defense budget but with a combination of foreign loans and other financing mechanisms. Poland’s success in contracting the purchase of this much defense equipment in just 1 year is extraordinary, which becomes proof  of Poland’s seriousness in considering Russia as an existential threat.

The impact of defense equipment purchases on strengthening Poland’s military

The purchase of defense equipment as described in the sub-discussion above, both directly and indirectly, will have an impact on strengthening Poland’s military posture. where the purchase of new defense equipment will provide additional variations and capabilities for the Polish military to carry out military and non-military operations. The addition of defense equipment can also be used by Poland as a deterrent media in the face of potential Russian threats. Where the massive military strengthening carried out by Poland can provide a deterrent effect that will make Russia think carefully if it wants to direct its attacks to Poland.

In addition, the addition of defense equipment also has an effect on the Polish military strength index, where based on data from Global Fire Power (GFP), Poland’s military strength ranking has increased by 3 ranks, from 23rd in 2021 to 20th in 2023.[4] However, the GFP Index cannot be used as an absolute reference, because the GFP calculation is based on the quantity of defense equipment owned. Even so, we can conclude that the purchase of defense equipment has a positive impact and further strengthens the Polish military.

Economic impact as a consequence of Poland’s defense spending

The implementation of a new law by Poland in the defense sector has allocated funds of 3% of GDP in 2023 and will be increased to 4% in 2024. Based on research conducted by Peace Science Digest, an increase in a country’s military budget will have an impact on slowing down the country’s economic growth.[5] because there will be adjustments to the country’s monetary and fiscal policies in order to increase the defense budget.

As explained in the picture, an increase in the defense budget will lead to balance of payment problems, which will lead to a slowdown in economic growth. In addition, the purchase of defense equipment by Poland, which mostly comes from foreign loans, will also burden the country in a long enough period of time that this has great consequences for the Polish economy.[6]

However, the increase in the defense budget also has a positive impact, where the increase will also have an impact on the development of the Polish defense sector. Poland’s cooperation with the United States can be an example, where the purchase of equipment such as tanks, howitzers, and helicopters in the process will involve a lot of human resources, so there will be more employment in the sector. Then the new defense budget law also has a clause where Poland will double the number of its military personnel from 150,000 personnel to 300,000 personnel.[7] So the addition will open many job vacancies to become soldiers, and there will be empowerment of industries in the military sector, so that Poland will still get a return on this expenditure.

Based on the author’s analysis, increasing Poland’s defense budget is not a bad decision when considered from the political and economic sectors. Where this action is indeed an urgency and necessity for Poland in preventing a possible invasion from Russia. However, the increase in the defense budget must be balanced with the country’s economic capabilities, so that it will minimize the slowdown in economic growth.

Has Poland’s new military power projection  been effective and achieved the goal?

The addition and modernisation of the military carried out by Poland has provided a new projection of strength. Where the purchase of hundreds of equipment is expected to be a deterrent in the face of potential Russian invasion threats. But has the purchase been effective and provided deterrence for Russia?

In answering this question, the author will first explain the process of military strengthening carried out by Poland. In this case, Poland chose conventional deterrence as a way to cause fear. Conventional deterrence is an action to create a deterrent through the strengthening of conventional defense equipment.[8] This strategy is used because it is the most rational way that Poland can take considering their economic strength.

Then, does the strengthening of the Polish military now make the country ready to face the Russian threat? If we answer this question using the comparison of the current Polish military strength with Russian military strength, it is still far from being ready because of the unbalanced strength, where Russia still has superiority in all sectors.

If we make a comparison using the GFP ranking where the basis of comparison is the quantity of defense equipment, it can be seen that Russia is ranked 2 and Poland is ranked 20. So if we answer only using this variable, of course the strengthening carried out by Poland has not been too effective, because Russia has strength far above Poland, so that the invasion scenario from Russia could have occurred due to unbalanced power calculations. So if we look only at these variables, of course the answer is still not effective and Poland needs more advanced military modernisation and strengthening.

However, if we look at Poland and deterrence using a broader perspective, this could have given Russia trepidation. Poland itself is a member of the NATO defense pact, so if Poland is attacked, it will indirectly activate NATO Article 5 which makes all NATO countries fight Russia. However, this variable is not included in the subject of analysis, because the focus of this research lies on increasing the defense budget and modernizing the Polish military. Therefore, referring to the narrative above, the author states that the deterrence generated from strengthening the Polish military is still not felt by Russia, so Poland still needs more advanced modernisation to give a deterrent effect to Russia.

Conclusion

Strengthening the Polish military has many consequences, ranging from military and economic. However, it is the most rational choice that Poland can make, because the country is in a state of concern about the Russian threat (security dilemma). Based on this assumption, Poland will rationally make every effort to modernize its military through the purchase of new defense equipment to western partners to provide a deterrent effect against Russia. As of 2022 itself, Poland has made quite a lot of defense equipment purchases. They have succeeded in raising their country’s military power ranking in the GFP index by 3 ranks. The current position is number 20. However, as the author has explained in the discussion, the efforts made are still not enough to provide deterrence. So Poland needs more advanced strengthening in order to provide deterrence against Russia.

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